CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2014-01-14T10:24:00-CME-001)

(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)
(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from simulation posted here: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/)
(Submitted Kp estimate is from the Forecast Dicussion and 3-Day Forecast below)
--
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2014 Jan 15 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity decreased to low levels. Region 1944 (S12W88) produced
two low-level C-class flares as it began crossing the west limb. Region
1953 (S17W25, Dao/beta) showed minor intermediate spot development and
produced a couple optical subflares during the period. Minor spot
development also occurred in Region 1950 (N17W25, Bxo/beta). No
remarkable changes occurred in the remaining four spotted regions,
including newly numbered Region 1954 (N07W01, Bxo/beta). An eruptive
event was observed during approximately 14/0830 - 1100 UTC associated
with a coronal mass ejection (CME) that appeared to have an Earthward
component (approximate speed was 540 km/s). This was the only
Earth-directed CME observed during the period.
--
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2014 Jan 15 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 1944 (S12, L=93) produced the
only notable flare of the period, a C3 flare, at 14/1604 UTC. This
region has since rotated around the west limb. Region 1953 (S18W32,
Dao/beta) exhibited slight growth in the leader spots but was fairly
inactive, producing only minor optical subflares during the period. The
remaining regions on the visible disk were either stable or showed signs
of slight decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be low for all three days of the period
(15-17 Jan) with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (15
Jan).
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to increase to moderate to high levels during the period (Jan 15 - 17)
in response to coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) effects. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to
remain at background levels during the period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
ACE data indicated subsiding CH HSS effects throughout the period. Wind
speed remained elevated for the first half of the summary period,
beginning with speeds just over 650 km/s, and reaching a peak speed of
667 km/s at 14/1442 UTC. Just after the end of the UTC day, speeds began
a gradual but steady decline, ending the period just under 500 km/s. IMF
Bt was steady throughout the period, ranging from 1 nT to 4 nT. IMF Bz
was variable with a range of +2/-4 nT until just after 14/0500 UTC where
it leveled off near 0 nT to +1 nT. IMF Phi data indicated a
negative-polarity (Toward) solar sector during the period.
.Forecast...
Solar wind speed is expected to continue to gradually decrease through
around midday on 17 Jan as the CH HSS subsides. Increases in wind speed,
IMF Bz variability, and IMF Bt are expected to commence around midday on
17 Jan due to the arrival of the CME observed early on 15 Jan.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
Geomagnetic field activity was quiet to unsettled with an isolated
period of moderate storm levels at higher latitudes during the 12-15 UTC
synoptic period.
.Forecast...
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet levels on days one
and two (15-16 Jan) as CH HSS effects subside. Quiet conditions are
expected to persist until around midday on 17 Jan when the 15 Jan CME is
expected to arrive, boosting activity to quiet to active levels.
--
Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2014 Jan 15 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 15-Jan 17 2014 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 15-Jan 17 2014
 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
00-03UT 2 2 2 
03-06UT 1 1 2 
06-09UT 1 1 2 
09-12UT 1 1 2 
12-15UT 1 1 3 
15-18UT 1 1 4 
18-21UT 1 2 4 
21-00UT 2 2 4 
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 15-Jan 17 2014
 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 15-Jan 17 2014
 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
R1-R2 10% 5% 5%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.

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